PastBehavior uses historical precedent to understand what may happen next. Prediction markets give us a way to test those ideas. Each forecast is recorded before the outcome is known, compared with the market price, and updated once the contract settles.
Weak hiring and a rising unemployment rate are not the same mechanism. PastBehavior put 5% on a September U-3 reading of 4.5% or higher. No target market was listed, so no comparison and no gap exist.
Quarterly deliveries are set by production and inventory mechanics rather than by demand alone. PastBehavior said 35%, the ladder-implied market estimate was about 36%, and a one point gap is not a signal.
Apple created a spring slot before it moved the standard phone into it. The market said 14%, PastBehavior said 10%, and a four point gap is not a signal.
The study produced a 44 point apparent gap, then found the resolution metric itself could not be verified. Action is PASS and the forecast is recorded as conditional.
PastBehavior sees an 80% chance the Fed holds rates in September, versus 66% in the market. The disagreement is meaningful, but it falls one point short of the threshold for a paper position.
Congress routinely misses the October 1 appropriations deadline. An actual shutdown at that specific deadline is much rarer.
The market said 61%. PastBehavior said 45%, and the disagreement is only a few days of schedule slip either side of the cutoff.
The market said 35%. PastBehavior said 20%, and the disagreement was about release timing rather than the name.
The market says 39%. History points lower, and the difference comes down to timing.
AI has been the top stated reason for announced U.S. job cuts since March. We tested whether that run is strong enough to forecast the sixth month.